Housewarming Aces

I played a small game at our housewarming a few days ago. Christina's cousin Maj, Antonio. Logan (Christina Chin's boyfriend) and Tsung (sp) were in for $20 each. I was playing tight-aggressive. I found myself in the big blind with just Logan. I held 2-6 offsuit. I checked. The flop was no help, but Logan checked to me. I bet out 800, which he called. The turn came a 9, and he checked to me. I bet out 2000, and after some thought, he called. After the river, I had a 6 high. Logan only had 1700 left in chips. He checked to me, and I knew if I bet out, that he would have called. I checked and showed my bluff. The very next hand, I luckily found pocket aces. This was great timing because I could try to play off that I was "steaming" from losing the prior hand. Blinds were at 200/400. There were 3 people left - Maj, Logan and I. I was in the small blind. Logan folded. I raised to 800 (minimum raise). Maj called. The flop came 6 7 A. I flopped top set, but didn't want to scare away Maj. I bet 800 again, and she called. I was a little scared that she might have an open-ended straight draw, but I also wanted to get maximum payout with the best hand. The turn was no help, and I bet out 2000 into a pot of 3200 to protect against the straight draw. Maj called. The river was a scary 8, but I had no choice but to take my chances and push all in with the remaining 1500 I had left. Maj called and mucked her cards.

One of the skills that make one's game most profitable is also determining how much money to bet when you have the best hand. There's no reason to bet big when you opponent may have the second best hand. If there are some possible draws (straight, flush) then you have to know what your opponent's odds of catching their cards are and bet enough to make their pot odds unfavorable. For example, if Maj held 8 9, she would have had an open ended straight draw on the flop. Her odds of catching a 5 or a 10 on the turn or river were 8 out of 42 - slightly less than 20% or 5 to 1. After the flop, there was 1600 in the pot. I bet 800, so she had to call 800 in order to win 2400 (my post-flop bet of 800 + the 1600 in the pot pre-flop), which was offering her 3 to 1 on her money, which is much better odds than the cards would have theoretically been offering her.

If there were two suited cards, and she was "four flushed", the odds of her catching a 5th suited card on the turn or river would have been 9 out of 42, slightly more than 20%, which offers similar pot odds in comparison to the open-ended straight draw.

If the 6 and 7 were suited, and she held 8 and 9 (of the same suit) in her hand, she could have won with any 5, 10, or suited card (she would have had 9 other suited cards, but you have to subtract the 5 and 10 of the suit so you don't double count your "outs). She would have had four 5's, four 10's, and 7 suited cards that would have won the hand for her- 16 cards out of 42- about 38% chance of catching on the turn or river (Phil Gordon has an easy calculation that comes in handy to calculate one's odds post-flop- (# of outs x 4) = % chance of catching one's cards on the turn or river. (# of outs x 2) = % chance of catching one's cards on the river. If Maj had an open-ended straight flush draw, her odds using that calculation would have been (17 outs x 4) = 68%, which means that she would have actually been a favorite!

If Maj hit her straight or flush (hopefully not a straight flush) on the turn, I would have to have the "board" pair, or pick up the quad Ace to beat her. My outs would have been one Ace, three 6's, three 7's, and three Jacks: 10 outs in all- which calculates to 20% odds of catching my card. After the turn, there was 3200 in the pot, and I bet 2000. I was offering her 2000 to win 5200- 2.6 to 1 pot odds. I only had 1500 left before the river. If I checked and she put me all in, I would be getting 1500 to 8700 or 5,8 to 1 pot odds. Seeing as my odds of catching a winning card would have been 5 to 1, then the correct decision in that case would have been to call, as my pot odds were greater than the odds of catching my card, which over the course of time will make one a profitable player.