I played a small game at our housewarming a few days ago. Christina's cousin Maj, Antonio. Logan (Christina Chin's boyfriend) and Tsung (sp) were in for $20 each. I was playing tight-aggressive. I found myself in the big blind with just Logan. I held 2-6 offsuit. I checked. The flop was no help, but Logan checked to me. I bet out 800, which he called. The turn came a 9, and he checked to me. I bet out 2000, and after some thought, he called. After the river, I had a 6 high. Logan only had 1700 left in chips. He checked to me, and I knew if I bet out, that he would have called. I checked and showed my bluff. The very next hand, I luckily found pocket aces. This was great timing because I could try to play off that I was "steaming" from losing the prior hand. Blinds were at 200/400. There were 3 people left - Maj, Logan and I. I was in the small blind. Logan folded. I raised to 800 (minimum raise). Maj called. The flop came 6 7 A. I flopped top set, but didn't want to scare away Maj. I bet 800 again, and she called. I was a little scared that she might have an open-ended straight draw, but I also wanted to get maximum payout with the best hand. The turn was no help, and I bet out 2000 into a pot of 3200 to protect against the straight draw. Maj called. The river was a scary 8, but I had no choice but to take my chances and push all in with the remaining 1500 I had left. Maj called and mucked her cards.
One of the skills that make one's game most profitable is also determining how much money to bet when you have the best hand. There's no reason to bet big when you opponent may have the second best hand. If there are some possible draws (straight, flush) then you have to know what your opponent's odds of catching their cards are and bet enough to make their pot odds unfavorable. For example, if Maj held 8 9, she would have had an open ended straight draw on the flop. Her odds of catching a 5 or a 10 on the turn or river were 8 out of 42 - slightly less than 20% or 5 to 1. After the flop, there was 1600 in the pot. I bet 800, so she had to call 800 in order to win 2400 (my post-flop bet of 800 + the 1600 in the pot pre-flop), which was offering her 3 to 1 on her money, which is much better odds than the cards would have theoretically been offering her.
If there were two suited cards, and she was "four flushed", the odds of her catching a 5th suited card on the turn or river would have been 9 out of 42, slightly more than 20%, which offers similar pot odds in comparison to the open-ended straight draw.
If the 6 and 7 were suited, and she held 8 and 9 (of the same suit) in her hand, she could have won with any 5, 10, or suited card (she would have had 9 other suited cards, but you have to subtract the 5 and 10 of the suit so you don't double count your "outs). She would have had four 5's, four 10's, and 7 suited cards that would have won the hand for her- 16 cards out of 42- about 38% chance of catching on the turn or river (Phil Gordon has an easy calculation that comes in handy to calculate one's odds post-flop- (# of outs x 4) = % chance of catching one's cards on the turn or river. (# of outs x 2) = % chance of catching one's cards on the river. If Maj had an open-ended straight flush draw, her odds using that calculation would have been (17 outs x 4) = 68%, which means that she would have actually been a favorite!
If Maj hit her straight or flush (hopefully not a straight flush) on the turn, I would have to have the "board" pair, or pick up the quad Ace to beat her. My outs would have been one Ace, three 6's, three 7's, and three Jacks: 10 outs in all- which calculates to 20% odds of catching my card. After the turn, there was 3200 in the pot, and I bet 2000. I was offering her 2000 to win 5200- 2.6 to 1 pot odds. I only had 1500 left before the river. If I checked and she put me all in, I would be getting 1500 to 8700 or 5,8 to 1 pot odds. Seeing as my odds of catching a winning card would have been 5 to 1, then the correct decision in that case would have been to call, as my pot odds were greater than the odds of catching my card, which over the course of time will make one a profitable player.
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Bad Beat Blues at Artichoke Joe's
Sunday No Limit Tournament at Artichoke Joe's. My second try at the Sunday tournament. Buy in was $49, unlimited rebuys for the first 4 rounds at $20 for 500 in chips. One $40 add-on at the break for another $1000 in chips. I only played one hand the first hour, with no callers. A lot of loose play with players trying to accumulate chips. First hand after the break. I have $1940 in chips. Blinds were at 60/100. I was two off of the button, all fold around to me. I look down at pocket 9's, the best hand I've seen all night. I raise to 340. Small and big blind call. Flop comes 4 6 7. Big blind check to me. Given that there was almost $1000 in the pot, I decide to push all of my chips in there, as I figure that I was the favorite. The small blind folds, and the big blind pauses, decides to call, even though he knew he was a big dog. He turns over pocket deuces. He spikes a deuce on the turn AND the river for quad deuces. I'm one of the first to go home. He thought I had AK.
Afterthoughts: I should have raised a bit more, maybe 4-5 times the big blind with a medium pocket pair. The big blind had a lot more in chips than I did, and with the small blind calling the extra 280, he needed another 240 to call my raise with 680 in the pot, slightly less than 3 to 1 pot odds, so he decided to take a chance and call. I wonder what would have happened if I only put $1000 in the pot after the flop. I think he probably would have still called. I think I made the right decision, just ran into some very bad luck. Pre-flop, I was a 4 -1 favorite, and after the flop, I was 96 to 4% favorite. There were only two cards in the deck that he could catch, and he caught both of them. Bad beat. Not quite as bad as losing with quad aces, but unfortunate, nonetheless.
Afterthoughts: I should have raised a bit more, maybe 4-5 times the big blind with a medium pocket pair. The big blind had a lot more in chips than I did, and with the small blind calling the extra 280, he needed another 240 to call my raise with 680 in the pot, slightly less than 3 to 1 pot odds, so he decided to take a chance and call. I wonder what would have happened if I only put $1000 in the pot after the flop. I think he probably would have still called. I think I made the right decision, just ran into some very bad luck. Pre-flop, I was a 4 -1 favorite, and after the flop, I was 96 to 4% favorite. There were only two cards in the deck that he could catch, and he caught both of them. Bad beat. Not quite as bad as losing with quad aces, but unfortunate, nonetheless.
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
Floyd Alexander's $100 No-Limit Hold 'Em
Date: Saturday, September 6, 2008
Location: Floyd Alexander's Poker Basement - San Jose, CA
Starting chip stack: $10,000
Hand #1.1
If memory serves me correctly, the blinds were at 200/400. Floyd is on the button, raises to 1600, with only 3000 in chips remaining after that. Player to the right of Floyd folds. Doug Sargent (my brother in law) is sitting to my right. He raises another $5,000. After some thought, my best guess at his hand was pocket kings. I looked at my hand, and I had pocket queens. I only had a little over $8000 in chips left.
Analysis of Doug's hand:
Relatively early position, re-raising enough to put Floyd all in, which in itself would mean a medium to premium pocket pair or big slick, suited or unsuited. I don't think he would raise such a large amount with pocket aces, as he would actually want to just call with them because of his position, and then trap other players if they try to re-raise. He raised a large amount, which not only is an isolation move, but it is forcing players to pay a premium price to draw out. Doug had almost twice as many chips as any of the players behind him, so he could afford to make a move like that.
Analysis of my options:
Unfortunately, I picked up a big hand in this situation. I'm facing a raise and a re-raise from the chip leader. I would have to commit 75% of my chips in order to call the re-raise, so calling is not really an option. I either have to fold or go all-in. If my analysis of Doug's hand is correct, then I would be a 4-1 underdog. I would be putting in $4800 to win the remainder of Floyd's chips (although if I went over the top of Doug, he would probably have folded) plus Doug's chips in the main pot, so that would be getting 3-1 pot odds on those chips. The side pot between Doug and I would have been about $7,200. The total pot would have been about $22,000. The implied pot odds would have been less than 3 to 1 ($8000 to win $22,000), and my hand was a 4 to 1 dog, so the right move here was to fold.
Begrudgingly, I folded my pocket queens (a first for me).
Hand #1.2
Blinds: 400/800
Antes: 50
Players remaining at the table: 6
Player A on the button raises to 3000. Doug folds. I have about the same amount of chips left. Total pot at this point: 400 + 800 + 300 * 3000 = $4,500. I look down to find pocket jacks, a medium pocket pair.
Analysis of Player A's hand: On the button (early position), raises to a little over 3X the big blind. Puts in double the pot size. Not sure exactly what he had. Could be a medium pocket pair or big slick. Player A is probably 2nd in chips with approximately $15,000 in chips.
My options: If I call, then half of my chips will be going into the pot, with half of the rest of the table to act after me. Because of the size of the blinds, I have to either fold or go all-in. I decide to go all in with a bit over $8,000. One of my mistakes was already telling Player A "you got it", "easy call", etc. His pot odds were an additional $5,000 to win a pot of about $13,000, so 2.6 to 1. He calls and turns over pocket kings, which hold up.
Afterthoughts: I was a little tired of folding premium hands to perceived bigger premium hands (which seemed to be rather prevalent that evening). I think if I analyzed Player A's hand for a little longer, and execised a bit more patience, I would have saved my tournament life at that point.
Overall tournament reflections: I think I made a lot of good decisions, but it only takes one big mistake to get knocked out in a heartbeat.
Location: Floyd Alexander's Poker Basement - San Jose, CA
Starting chip stack: $10,000
Hand #1.1
If memory serves me correctly, the blinds were at 200/400. Floyd is on the button, raises to 1600, with only 3000 in chips remaining after that. Player to the right of Floyd folds. Doug Sargent (my brother in law) is sitting to my right. He raises another $5,000. After some thought, my best guess at his hand was pocket kings. I looked at my hand, and I had pocket queens. I only had a little over $8000 in chips left.
Analysis of Doug's hand:
Relatively early position, re-raising enough to put Floyd all in, which in itself would mean a medium to premium pocket pair or big slick, suited or unsuited. I don't think he would raise such a large amount with pocket aces, as he would actually want to just call with them because of his position, and then trap other players if they try to re-raise. He raised a large amount, which not only is an isolation move, but it is forcing players to pay a premium price to draw out. Doug had almost twice as many chips as any of the players behind him, so he could afford to make a move like that.
Analysis of my options:
Unfortunately, I picked up a big hand in this situation. I'm facing a raise and a re-raise from the chip leader. I would have to commit 75% of my chips in order to call the re-raise, so calling is not really an option. I either have to fold or go all-in. If my analysis of Doug's hand is correct, then I would be a 4-1 underdog. I would be putting in $4800 to win the remainder of Floyd's chips (although if I went over the top of Doug, he would probably have folded) plus Doug's chips in the main pot, so that would be getting 3-1 pot odds on those chips. The side pot between Doug and I would have been about $7,200. The total pot would have been about $22,000. The implied pot odds would have been less than 3 to 1 ($8000 to win $22,000), and my hand was a 4 to 1 dog, so the right move here was to fold.
Begrudgingly, I folded my pocket queens (a first for me).
Hand #1.2
Blinds: 400/800
Antes: 50
Players remaining at the table: 6
Player A on the button raises to 3000. Doug folds. I have about the same amount of chips left. Total pot at this point: 400 + 800 + 300 * 3000 = $4,500. I look down to find pocket jacks, a medium pocket pair.
Analysis of Player A's hand: On the button (early position), raises to a little over 3X the big blind. Puts in double the pot size. Not sure exactly what he had. Could be a medium pocket pair or big slick. Player A is probably 2nd in chips with approximately $15,000 in chips.
My options: If I call, then half of my chips will be going into the pot, with half of the rest of the table to act after me. Because of the size of the blinds, I have to either fold or go all-in. I decide to go all in with a bit over $8,000. One of my mistakes was already telling Player A "you got it", "easy call", etc. His pot odds were an additional $5,000 to win a pot of about $13,000, so 2.6 to 1. He calls and turns over pocket kings, which hold up.
Afterthoughts: I was a little tired of folding premium hands to perceived bigger premium hands (which seemed to be rather prevalent that evening). I think if I analyzed Player A's hand for a little longer, and execised a bit more patience, I would have saved my tournament life at that point.
Overall tournament reflections: I think I made a lot of good decisions, but it only takes one big mistake to get knocked out in a heartbeat.
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